NFP... expect no surprise

Dun think the NFP is going to post a +ve number. Think scenario is heavily grey and gloomy for the U.S for now. But dun see usd getting too heavily slammed to break 103.00. Jpy crosses will lead the way a bit to the downside. eur and gbp corrective up will be capped. See thin mkt conditions with lots of volatile swings as expected to end the week. But reckon usd will survive this week into next. Its the eur and gbp that am more concerned abt for next week.

Dovish EU !!!!

Well a change of stance in the EU regarding rates. Lets see.. history will tell that they will move too slow and too late. Thats my bet. 1.30 eur? very possible in my view. lets see the corrections close to 1.40 if even close.

Eur and Trichet

Finally, the Trichet man , whom I never trusted , confirms a weakening economy and further contraction. Must say all the jawboning since a year or so ago, has lost its lustre. Fundamentaly, germany is the engine of the EU, since last year spain, and others were crumbling but mkt prefered to bet on the lesser of the 2 evils. What were the keys... oil . Crude oil staying at or below 100 wud be a decisive consideration in how the big pic will turn out. looks like 1.3750 lvls for the eur first. How the EU handles the contagion wud be an issue too. But mkt is helping by selling it down. Suspect more to come from a contracting EU going into 2009. rate cut there sgould be a given in the near term.

Landscape changes...

With the senate voting today ... good for usd. Becos of this delay, the EU is calling a meeting for saturday. This changes the landscape a bit. Now perhaps a straight usd play and the cross vs jpy may be favored. This leaves the U.K. Am inclined to think that eur/gbp would become more bid. Lets see.

No Ice Cream day....

Not unexpected as the hopes for a revival in the bail-out plan is tmr. Mkt seems very hopeful and that sentiment seems to be picking up some steam. The U.S players are especially on the cup is half full view. At least some volatility coming into the mkt. Anyway, have been getting "stand aside" signals all day ... Having no position is having a position.....

Quater end , Mth end action after bail-out shock

Surprisingly quiet as volumes seemed restraint. Usd has clawed back above 105.00 vs Jpy and usd chf also looking bid all Londontime. With a slew of U.S data coming out it would be interesting. This week may be best sidelined into Thursday. Altho quiet, managed 27 pips in cable. As usual, leaving another chunk on the table. Trading is certaintly all about patience and sitting .

positioning or adjustments

talk of large option in $jpy taken in NY last nite 126 strike barrier. Hmm.. do they know something.... like some plan will be adopted soon. guess the unthinkable of no plan frm the U.S is not being held. Russians seen buying eur today but met with supply. reckon its cross related against the jpy. Cos talk is they have buy odas in the cross sitting. i dun trade the cross so i dun know where. Not unexpected as following a major sell off some recovery is expected.

Liquidity crisis and global contagion

So what happens? Surely measures have to be taken starting with theU.S followed closely with the U.K and eu. First consideration would be liquidity. Rates and bolster each domestic front by repatriating. Challenging times ahead and volatility to the FX mkts. $/Jpy 104-108 range ahead. reckon we'll spend some time in the bottom half the range in the week ahead B4 trying the upper half of the range. Standing aside when not sure ... chasing mkts maybe hazzardous. Patience will yield rewards in this time.