Extreme volatility and deleveraging..

Volatilitity peaks last couple of sessions indicates a deleveraging especially in usd denominated assets. Concerns now will further exacerbate this in the coming sessions as the " money centers" via for top spot. This means the debate of the usd being the reserve ccy is now being mooted over. many calling it the New Bretton Woods. yes very much so on the surface. But if one recall the many changes that have gone through since the move away from the Gold standard, it may seem rather premature to change the " reserve ccy" of global trade. thats just my opinion. One example is the repeal of the glass steagal act, where commercial banks could compete in the relm of brokerages and many investment programs from derivative types to insurance linked types were mass marketed to the masses. It was a time of great wealth accumulation and greed fed upon greed. Please understand it's just my personal layman's view . my view and wish is that this deleveraging going on to minimise risks will not crack the system and add weight to the change of a usd reserve ccy. Just crystal balling a bit, if it does happen i would bet that even more volatility and disruptions will occur. Which in all likelyhood further stress the global system. Furthermore, going foward even after a period of perceived "stabiliy' life on this planet earth from a financial and commercial standpoint would be even more difficult and dark. Drawing upon the epilogue even sooner.

Friday syndrome for me...

Either its age or just plane laziness, when it comes to fridays my interest wanes for the mkts. Only got 39 pips ( usd$390) so far . left too much on the table by being lazy to wait and taking walks . Anyhow 250 plus pips for the week. maybe next week I will trade more seriously. At least be more focused.

Busy with FTSE...

Good volatility and thin volumes in the index today but another plus day for me. (+gbp400) Only till 7pm sg time that I started trading FX in eur long side. Got 29 pips. ( usd$290) Woke up too late to catch the first leg up so patiently waiting . Patience always pays off , waiting for set-ups , in trading any mkts. Kicking myself for pulling my bid off in gbp at 1.7268. My fav 2 yr old came by to play so thought best to square eur and pull gbp order. Gbp turned out to be the better pair. live and learn. ( Always -) ) Been feeling tired of late , so am trading closer to the vest and shipping pips and ticks in.

Interesting Article for starters....

How to Move Beyond the Possible Into the Realm of Probable Where the Fruit is Profitable The probability of your success in any particular trade or series of trades is dependent on how you use your charting program, technical indicators, money management and how you mentally manage your emotions. Understanding what your indicators are telling you is another key point. Study the formulas and compare the differences between MACD, CCI and Stochastic indicators of the same length. Look at them visually as well as mathematically. Visually look at the differences between a normal, exponential, smoothed and weighted indicator. Study until you know what each indicator is telling you. My mentor made me "hand calculate" all the indicators so I learned what each was telling me in advance of the next market move. One interesting concept is to actually calculate a few bars of these indicators from real data in order to truly understand what the indicator is doing and how it reacts to gaps, low volatility and regular price swings. Be sure to run the calculation until you lose a big bar as well. This skewing factor will let you know why many people distrust indicators. They do not understand the limitations of indicators in certain volatile market conditions. All indicators are derivatives or second tiered smoothing of price action. Inherently, all indicators are lagging in one way or another. It is important to understand how they relate to price, potential future movement of price, and how they are affected by past price spikes. We do provide you with a non-lagging indicator (from my nuclear power days) for added accuracy. We tend to trade by watching only our indicators. Watching price only, you can become hypnotized by the noise and miss the real moves. I consider the following four points whenever I am about to make a trade. The number of indicators moving or about to move in my direction. The angle and rate of change of these indicators. The position of the indicators above or below 50% or the 20/80% level for oscillators. The likelihood of continuation based on approaching Support and Resistance, length of previous move and the time of day. Here is a vital key to remember: If you see three indicators moving in your direction, just say to yourself "1, 2, 3, Go". It is as simple as that.

Concerted 50bps rate cut

As expected rate decision to cut.

Trading close to the vest...

Volatility in the gbp is big today. Eur seems more sedate. Again eurgbp play in the mkt. Thks to bailout plans I get my levels done. Traded on short side , got my 51 pips in the first hour ...3pm-4pm sg time. Think with the volatility in the stock mkt also ... time for a kitkat. LOL

CP market revived..

Looks like advise frm Bill Gross taken and the FED is buying in the CP ( commercial paper) mkt. Good news as it provides liquidity and a channel to access liquidity. Well usd bid plus the jpy crosses. Indices have all gone ballistic coupled with heavy volatility. -)))))

Broke my discipline...

Traded the aud frm the long side frm 0.7135 bot more at 0.7177 and squared at 0.7195. + 78 pips. Now I reckon I shld shut down my computers and go take a leisurely walk. Got +usd1k for the day.

Not a day I like...

Got my 61 pips and standing aside. Got them in gbp. Y I dun like days like this is cos its eur/gbp dominating. Its just me...LOL Sit on profits and take a break. Hve a kitkat

Entrys...

Entry rules. Most traders spend more time analyzing entry rules than any other rules, though the other aspects of trading are equally important. There are many different ways to trigger an entry, you have decide what works for your style of trading. Here are some suggestions;(a) Should you enter at a certain price?(b) Enter long when the chart drops to that price? Or when it rises back through that price?(c) Will you enter when a certain indicator does something?(d) Should you jump in after the chart rises above a certain price (breakout)?(e) Should the chart maintain above (or below) a certain level for a certain amount of time before you enter? The above suggestions are only a few random ideas, the number of possible entry rules is endless, and you can combine several. You will have to test many of them to find the rules that have potential for your trading style, and your operating conditions. For a trading system to be successful, you must be able to duplicate your decision repeatedly, over many trades, with a positive result overall. Define your own entry rules, and document them. Then check that each trade complies with your rules.

Risk Control Rules

Risk control rules. Before a trade can be initiated, it must conform to your risk control paramaters. Each trader has his or her own tolerance for risk. If the risk is too high for that trader, then the trader will make bad decision due to stress. Also, the amount of capital that is risked in each trade will make a difference to the overall profitability/survivability of any trading strategy. Traders must tolerate some losses, but keep those losses manageable and smaller than the overall gains. Think about the following issues to define your risk control rules;(a) How much capital loss can be tolerated over a period?(b) How many losing trades are realistic over that period?(c) Is the risk per trade small enough to allow for a reasonable number of losing trades?(d) How much risk should you tolerate on this trade?(e) What if you exit at a loss, then the market reverses back in your favor? Do you re-enter?(f) What if the market goes sideways (consolidates)? You are still at risk.(g) When a trade is in a winning position, how much of your gains should you continue to place at risk in the market? Should you bank some of the profits? To protect against risk, we can adjust our position size, and our stop-loss orders. Even stop-loss orders don't guarantee you any protection. Do not enter any positions that will endanger your overall strategy. Every trade must conform to your risk rules.

Another good day for shorts...

3 trades done for today. Sold eur at 1.3615 locked in @ 1.3560 for 55 pips Sold again at 1.3615 and 1.3630 locked in @ 1.3570 for total of 105 pips Sold gbp @ 1.7625 locked in @ 1.7548 for 77 pips good day for london time trading nett usd$ 2,370. Patience in waiting for set-ups for intra-day move. Thought I missed it all till the first eur trade. calling it a day.

EU recovery .....

Obviously an uncoordinated EU frm this weekend's meeting. They were not looking for a bail-out plan ala U.S but approaching it frm deposit guarantees. Well, looks like one has to do what one has to do. Thereby this uncoordinated action among the Union will not be looked upon favorably. Remember the cries frm countries like Spain a year ago when EU kept rates high and threathening to raise ? The fruits of this Union will unfold soon. A house divided can't stand.