Fibonacci and Fundamentals 4

Fibonacci and Fundamentals 4

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TGIF Blues !!

When off to a slow start its always a telling sign of whats to come. Not a good day for me. Only locking in 95 pips nett . Feels like such a wasted day so far. Consolation is its Friday and Chinese new Year is coming upon us. Rein in the jets and take it easy . Getting the sense that the market in some sell off trend may be tapering off. Not going to pre-empt it but am watching for signs of consolidation and possible retracements of the down slide. Since GBP has been the leader of the bunge jump, its in extreme levels already and may see some steadiness coming in. Again we are in extreme conditions in the marketplace -))) Now its become more like the X-games LOL . So put on the helmet, knee pads, elbow pads and dont crash and burn.

Thursday 22nd Jan

Sold the retracements on $jpy and euro today. Got nice fills. Also bot the retracement of $cad . Decided to square positions with nett 500+ pips. So now I can enjoy watching american idol on the tube. Key.. patience to wait for mkt to come to you. euro sold at 1.3050. $cad bot at 1.2549 and $ jpy sold at 89.50.

Wed 21st Jan

What a day ! The $jpy really brought on some good volatility. Taking advantage of that I closed out all my positions and locked in 600+ nett pips even with the $jpy lost. ( In actuality I did not lose a single jpy point as I traded the position that made me a little pips even with comms -)) ) So for the week so far a little over 900pips nett gained. Today initiated some positions .. 3 so far and sitting quite nicely with nett 200+ pips floating. The $ cad yeaterday hit my target of 1.2750 first target before a retracement so entered on the retracement today. Still targeting higher. But one never knows wat price action it would be like at 1.2750 again. Sitting and waiting for now. Peace !!

The New Admin...

What a historically significant period for the U.S . Am looking foward to it with little reservation. My reason for this is because of the "Infrastructure Building Plan ". Am in favor of the approach, as I reckon in these times we live in, its time to build. It is time to be sowing seeds. Not focusing just on survival. Therefore, the strength of the USD would continue. Even past the May timeframe that cycle gurus are expecting. Think their cycle studies should be massively tweaked LOL. Altho their cycle low currently for the USD and its strength into May is already a truism. For the U.S its truly the beggining of a "new" season . Build!! Build!! Build!!

An epoch season

2009 may prove to be incredibly challenging globaly , however, it presents opportunities for the trader. I have decided to change my style a little to accomodate a more relaxing approach and more analysis. To add to the "naked" approach base on price action and price patterns , S/R becomes more important and momentum monitoring in these market conditions would be extremely helpful. So am looking at zones of support and resistance and the price action at these levels. Like in all things market, the trend or weak side of the market is paramount. The analysis on this will be off the daily timeframe while the main trading is focused on the H4 and H1. I find that after a "direction" is determined , projecting zones from the beggining of the move becomes extremely helpful in terms of targets and retracements. So these levels will be based on fib numbers . As the picture is painted the road signs could be determined and its a matter of following the probable directions given by the market. One important element going foward will be fundamental structure and news. I believe it will become even more critical to be abreast with these developments and analysing its impact. From this I see new relationships coming into prominance. For example, in the atmosphere of "risk", the gold/oil relationship, gold/yen, oil/yen relationships becomes interesting. Almost a mth has past in 2009 and Yen favor is so prominant. In the long run what does it do to Japan ? I reckon it would cripple the country. Gold above $800, on "safety" issues, I reckon would prove naive. Why? Because we are sinking deeper and deeper into a deflationary state. Wait as this will unfold. Think about it. Why would the food complex be in bearish mode and gold is at $800 ? People rather buy gold than a basic necessity like food ? Given a recession, the basic needs get met first as in all cycles . As time moves foward , I see this imbalance shift and I see a sharp reversal in the soft commodities . Truly an epoch season globally this cycle is going to be . Peace .