Saturday, February 7, 2009

Money Flow

If its not economic stimulus expectations its corporate interest. What with Nissan's need for eur for their european partner, reckon excecuted after the London fix. So eurjpy looked good LOL. On going talks by Rio Tinto, first seeking fund infusion from Chinalco and now talk of Mitsui buying a stake in Rio. Well audjpy should look interesting going foward. While cries for the US Obama led stimulus package to be passed, would be interesting Monday afternoon US time what the treasury sec outline looks like. All in all even with the eur snap back, its still not cracked above a daily trendline . Ah them jpy crosses... keep them on radar

Friday, February 6, 2009

Ah The Swing...

I read with candid restraint the news and reports that market is risk adverse and then it becomes less risk adverse. This is tantamount to calling the bottom of the market or a turning point. However, one thing is apparent and that is repatriation. So when the news reports etc keeps this up... its status quo for me. But as the reports keeps getting tilted to the risk adverse side then its a flag that maybe the markets are overdone. Its going to be challenging for the short term trader as the swings would provide opportunities but more risk in taking stops out.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

The Race To Zero

In was 10+ years ago when A bunch of LSE economists and I were discussing zero rate policies for the U.S. It was apparent then that the road for the U.S was headed that way. Today, the race is on. The economies that get there first has a higher probability of coming out sooner. Market will favor these economies. The slower to adapt will face "more" disfavor. Ceteris paribus... the global economies faces similar challenges and there's one that has been in this for a long time. Take a page off the book of Japan and one can see what had worked and what had not worked well in QE. The implementation of QE by japan may shed even greater light for the way out of this tunnel .