Latest TIC Data yesterday ....

Friday's TIC Data frm the U.S showed a blip up. Like it was mentioned a few posts before, repatriation is still going on. Foreign investments sold cos of its low risk/reward factor and $ flows back. Some hedge funds must be having a time of closing funds to return $ to investors. This is deleveraging and expected to continue. So volatility is the norm. All this a tad usd supportive in the big pic. Will continue to fade rallies next week....

TGIF .... time for a kitkat...

London came in put a sell order in GBP at 1.7370. Got filled . High was 81. Took back ay 1.7270. bank in 100 pips. Eur did the same but sell order did not trigger. Ftse very thin and erratic today but good swings. Think will just keep my ticks for the day GBP 1435 ( updated to present ) -) Must overcome this relaxed state , but then isn't good for trading. Why stress?

Whats the new world order ?

Not surprising that the EU is calling for the November meeting on global reforms . Whats their agenda ? The world is aware and the world is buying into the appeal of logic in this backdrop of crisis. This I view as prophetic in every sense of the word. The thinking would be that reforms are needed and this will threaten the USD status as reserve ccy. My sense is that no one will see that reforms would not be made. We get a step closer to the new world order that is to come. The day of the 666, is rearing itself.

Recession and tappering pricing pressures

How do equity mkts rally when recession is here. Is it not so that bonds do better in recessionary times ? With oil coming off towards the 70 level, does this not spell of pricing pressure relief. The 2 , oil and food, have all retreated. So the view is any bounce wud not be sustainable . Selling jpy crosses on rallies... thats the soft side for now. This in turn caps gbp and eur bounces. But whats intriguing coming up in the horizon is whether the " new bretton woods" wud be pursued. Interesting going into the end of the week. Another event trigger in the works.

manage to add...

28 more pips in eur so total for the day 44pips. Looks like I picked the lower RR trade cos the gbp wud have given me more pips quicker. Stiill trading frm the short side. But am staying flat to see what happens as after a big down day in the US there shld be a bounce. But how Much. Will be patient and wait for set-ups if any.

Better vols in indices than FX today....

Focus on the ftse100 today. Up gbp 1265 in 70 mins. Resting now but manage to squeeze 16 pips from eur. Guess will wait till later to focus on FX. Quiet for londontime in the FX. Consolidating in ranges for the eur/gbp and aud. Glad to have another outlet in futures ... phew!

Would not be unexpected ...

that the softness of mkts to remain . JP Morgan and Wells fargo results out rather mixed to uncertain. Going foward discounts would be expected. Noticed the last 2 sessions that Aud tries to climb during early londontime but tend to slide away into the open of U.S. Traded the shortside on aud yesterday and today. 45 mins into london open got 62 pips then got busy with the index. Erratic and thin today on the index. Could be a sign of $ sidelined as opposed to the buying on dips that we've seen. So the tide has ebbed. Big pic as I see it has not changed from my earlier post. Gbp staged a nice rally into late afternoon. as usual i left lots on the table . maybe am just tired and another mental health day might do the trick LOL. Let the FX mkt sort itself out for the week and braise for the slow down to hit in 2009. As for the euity mkts it may be too early to call abottom. Even with the bounce of the 50% retracement recently. Bottom picking only results in a smelly finger.

Interesting research to share

The Treasury Department is expected to announce a plan to directly investment in US banks, which will be similar to recent European proposals. The plan is the latest step towards shoring up troubled financial institutions and unfreezing interbank lending. According to media reports, the Treasury will invest up to $250 bln into banks in the form of preferred equity. The $250 bln will come from the funds provided for by EESA, but there will also be money left under EESA to be used for troubled asset purchases. The FDIC is expected to guarantee new bank debt issued by June 30 with maturities up to three years and will also offer unlimited deposit insurance temporarily for non-interest bearing accounts that are typically used by small businesses. Secretary Paulson has already convinced several large banks to agree to the proposal, leaving the government with the potential to invest in many more banks. The Treasury investments will be structured so as to give banks the incentive to attract private capital and buy out the government stake. Credit conditions are showing modest improvement with each new announced initiative but the implementation of the various plans is taking place gradually. 3m LIBOR fell another 12bp to 4.64% and overnight LIBOR is now 2.18% versus the 5.09% we saw last week. The 3m TED and 3m LIBOR-OIS spreads have tightened (445bp and 339bp, respectively) but they still remain elevated. Press reports suggest the Fed's plan to directly lend commercial paper will start in about two weeks. The new plan improves sentiment and we could see the dollar benefit against the Swiss franc and the yen. Ahead today is a press conference at 830 ET on the direct investment plan.

Day Off ...for me...

Well thought since its a day-off for me I wud not watch the mkt. Some thoughts..... the mood has improved after all that information overload from the weekend. But lets not forget, a year plus ago liquidity problems reared its head and funding was available but lending did not improve. Will this change because its gotten worst? i don't think so. Will the impact of the proposals take effect and convince everyone that all is getting better ? I don't think so. Is global recession now headed off ? I don't think so. How long is all this going to stretch ? I don't know. Gbp will be viewed more favorably than EUR. Too many cooks crowds a kitchen. Usd relative value status to the rest ? Well with the patchy footwork by the powers to be, its lessened. Market will sort this out in the weeks to come. Now I don't see usd going ballistic anytime soon. At best its trapped in a broad range thats already been established. But will it be relatively stronger than the EUR, I reckon so. So am looking for eur to weaken against the gbp. Eur to weaken against the usd. Usd to weaken against the jpy and chf. Well maybe I should just monitor the eur/jpy and eur/chf cross. Hmm... If what the mkt is taking today for the depression of last week, I want it. Boy! what an anti-depressant pill. Kidding....