MBT mt4

Finally using mt4 as part of my trading repertoire. MBT mt4 is excellent and am quite satisfied with the experience so far. I dont run EAs or anything ....I just need a chart and excecution. Must say their demo environment may be a challenge for those wanting to try. MBT still dumping their tweeks on them and the price chart can be quite askewed. Nevertheless the live environment is very acceptable.

Market junctures

Equity markets don't seem to wanna quit with retractions shallow . Thereby giving eur a bid tone. Bet many looking for some slide in the eur . The eur has been having tired legs up where it is for a while as i reckon there must be some structure putting a lid on it. Commodity ccys continue to outperform as the next stage of "recovery" being digested. Been long the softs since a week ago and sitting nicely. hey am just a hitchhiker -)) Asian ccys remain strong while the global markets debate the future of the usd. Rhetoric has been the cause of much of the volatility in the ccy moves . Whose next in the int. rate uptick ?

Back in the seat....

Been a while since the last post ....rethinking the trend that this blog will take. FX markets has been challenging of late but some nice trends in some pairs had emerged and dissipated as quickly. One thing is for sure the dynamics of change ever present in markets. History certainly teaches much wisdom.

Ah the Eurozone...

What happened to talks regarding bailing out eastern european countries ? bailout pack vetoed.

Did not germany step foward earlier to cause the eur to retrace up ? Ah the jawboning ECB, crying wolf again. What happened in the story ? No one belived the boy even when it was genuine. -))

Retail companies in germany have debts that are 18 times their mkt cap. the ballpark is 4.2bn.

So what becomes of the savior ?  Rest my case. 

In most crisis, it always gets worst before it gets better. The race is on and am inclined to believe the mkt will start to see from the perspective that ...the ones that moved the quickest will stabilise the quickiest. Reserve asset managers have to re weigh their portfolios accordingly. While Gold may be the next bubble. 

Markets have very short memories and sometimes behaves in the most psychotic way. Eur and Gbp moving up aided by RBA's non move , seeking yield , is a risky proposition. But opportunities to the retail guy like me. 

For the Jpy weakness to persists relative to usd, the jpy crosses will somewhat mitigate the falls of eur and gbp. But in the reallocating of reserve assets, we may indeed see a straight usd play coming. 100.0 jpy in 2-3 months ?  Or even less hee hee. 

Into a new month...03/09

The dominant play in the mkt is the weakness of the Jpy. Much also has to do with the Usd preference against it but I reckon that may be secondary. So where should we be focusing on ? Looking to the crosses for any leads ...the jpy crosses. Eur.. there seems to be a apparent targeting of the 1.2500 level. With ECB rate decision this week .. its a good time as any. The asian session has not shown much except for light volumes. Play good defence in these mkt conditions and it'll be alright. The focus remains on the banking sector globally. Well the impact reaches the insurers, property mkts and retail/auto mkts. Rates are historically low and some expected to play catch up. The impact of low rates is deposit rates edge to zero and this post the challenge to financial instituitions to lend rather then hold deposits. The question therefore is not about rates anymore. Its about the quantity of money. QE should help to direct the money supply. Monies have to come into the economies.. in spending and consumption and building. Would like to see M3 growth slow and M1 growth pick up. But we may be a ways to go on this.

Thin swings

Cable has been a wild one with knee jerks... mostly aimed at the abdomen LOL With risk reversals apparent in asia today the pic still remains unclear on that. Russia has decided to print 3.2 trillion to cover deficits, which should continue to weigh on the basket. Eurozone carrying weights ard its neck these days with the euro "sub-prime" ala eastern european banks being the weight. Best PF stretegy is weight for retracements to sell. Yet mkt filled with sell orders but getting filled at snail's pace on eurgbp retracement. Is the downside on sidelines and stabs at upside probes the order ? Unclear but seems like attempts are there. Market conditions warrant close monitoring and patience and entry levels must be strictly adhered to. That way the risk exposure is lowered. With some funds betting on recovery of commodity ccys like the aud, its yet unclear IMHO. So what if gold has been bullish. What else is there for safe haven allocation ?

The dance continues...

is this a 3 step ? Now that the ever "grey" stimulus package from the U.S has deflated some hope of a latter year recovery, the market's volatility has increased. It certaintly looks like global economies are showing mixed signals with bias to the downside as hopes of stability and potential recovery dims. However, this makes it hard to trade as many daily charts show a congestive mode, albeit the longer term trend is still down. Failures at stabs to the upside may tire the market out and keep it in limbo. Its a time for patience and sideline monitoring. No position is taking a position . The broad range that the majors are in is like a blender chopping up intraday and swing traders. Will this "tomato" sauce thicken any further.