Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Ah the Eurozone...

What happened to talks regarding bailing out eastern european countries ? bailout pack vetoed.
Did not germany step foward earlier to cause the eur to retrace up ? Ah the jawboning ECB, crying wolf again. What happened in the story ? No one belived the boy even when it was genuine. -))
Retail companies in germany have debts that are 18 times their mkt cap. the ballpark is 4.2bn.
So what becomes of the savior ?  Rest my case. 
In most crisis, it always gets worst before it gets better. The race is on and am inclined to believe the mkt will start to see from the perspective that ...the ones that moved the quickest will stabilise the quickiest. Reserve asset managers have to re weigh their portfolios accordingly. While Gold may be the next bubble. 
Markets have very short memories and sometimes behaves in the most psychotic way. Eur and Gbp moving up aided by RBA's non move , seeking yield , is a risky proposition. But opportunities to the retail guy like me. 
For the Jpy weakness to persists relative to usd, the jpy crosses will somewhat mitigate the falls of eur and gbp. But in the reallocating of reserve assets, we may indeed see a straight usd play coming. 100.0 jpy in 2-3 months ?  Or even less hee hee. 

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