MBT mt4

Finally using mt4 as part of my trading repertoire. MBT mt4 is excellent and am quite satisfied with the experience so far. I dont run EAs or anything ....I just need a chart and excecution. Must say their demo environment may be a challenge for those wanting to try. MBT still dumping their tweeks on them and the price chart can be quite askewed. Nevertheless the live environment is very acceptable.

Market junctures

Equity markets don't seem to wanna quit with retractions shallow . Thereby giving eur a bid tone. Bet many looking for some slide in the eur . The eur has been having tired legs up where it is for a while as i reckon there must be some structure putting a lid on it. Commodity ccys continue to outperform as the next stage of "recovery" being digested. Been long the softs since a week ago and sitting nicely. hey am just a hitchhiker -)) Asian ccys remain strong while the global markets debate the future of the usd. Rhetoric has been the cause of much of the volatility in the ccy moves . Whose next in the int. rate uptick ?

Back in the seat....

Been a while since the last post ....rethinking the trend that this blog will take. FX markets has been challenging of late but some nice trends in some pairs had emerged and dissipated as quickly. One thing is for sure the dynamics of change ever present in markets. History certainly teaches much wisdom.

Ah the Eurozone...

What happened to talks regarding bailing out eastern european countries ? bailout pack vetoed.

Did not germany step foward earlier to cause the eur to retrace up ? Ah the jawboning ECB, crying wolf again. What happened in the story ? No one belived the boy even when it was genuine. -))

Retail companies in germany have debts that are 18 times their mkt cap. the ballpark is 4.2bn.

So what becomes of the savior ?  Rest my case. 

In most crisis, it always gets worst before it gets better. The race is on and am inclined to believe the mkt will start to see from the perspective that ...the ones that moved the quickest will stabilise the quickiest. Reserve asset managers have to re weigh their portfolios accordingly. While Gold may be the next bubble. 

Markets have very short memories and sometimes behaves in the most psychotic way. Eur and Gbp moving up aided by RBA's non move , seeking yield , is a risky proposition. But opportunities to the retail guy like me. 

For the Jpy weakness to persists relative to usd, the jpy crosses will somewhat mitigate the falls of eur and gbp. But in the reallocating of reserve assets, we may indeed see a straight usd play coming. 100.0 jpy in 2-3 months ?  Or even less hee hee. 

Into a new month...03/09

The dominant play in the mkt is the weakness of the Jpy. Much also has to do with the Usd preference against it but I reckon that may be secondary. So where should we be focusing on ? Looking to the crosses for any leads ...the jpy crosses. Eur.. there seems to be a apparent targeting of the 1.2500 level. With ECB rate decision this week .. its a good time as any. The asian session has not shown much except for light volumes. Play good defence in these mkt conditions and it'll be alright. The focus remains on the banking sector globally. Well the impact reaches the insurers, property mkts and retail/auto mkts. Rates are historically low and some expected to play catch up. The impact of low rates is deposit rates edge to zero and this post the challenge to financial instituitions to lend rather then hold deposits. The question therefore is not about rates anymore. Its about the quantity of money. QE should help to direct the money supply. Monies have to come into the economies.. in spending and consumption and building. Would like to see M3 growth slow and M1 growth pick up. But we may be a ways to go on this.

Thin swings

Cable has been a wild one with knee jerks... mostly aimed at the abdomen LOL With risk reversals apparent in asia today the pic still remains unclear on that. Russia has decided to print 3.2 trillion to cover deficits, which should continue to weigh on the basket. Eurozone carrying weights ard its neck these days with the euro "sub-prime" ala eastern european banks being the weight. Best PF stretegy is weight for retracements to sell. Yet mkt filled with sell orders but getting filled at snail's pace on eurgbp retracement. Is the downside on sidelines and stabs at upside probes the order ? Unclear but seems like attempts are there. Market conditions warrant close monitoring and patience and entry levels must be strictly adhered to. That way the risk exposure is lowered. With some funds betting on recovery of commodity ccys like the aud, its yet unclear IMHO. So what if gold has been bullish. What else is there for safe haven allocation ?

The dance continues...

is this a 3 step ? Now that the ever "grey" stimulus package from the U.S has deflated some hope of a latter year recovery, the market's volatility has increased. It certaintly looks like global economies are showing mixed signals with bias to the downside as hopes of stability and potential recovery dims. However, this makes it hard to trade as many daily charts show a congestive mode, albeit the longer term trend is still down. Failures at stabs to the upside may tire the market out and keep it in limbo. Its a time for patience and sideline monitoring. No position is taking a position . The broad range that the majors are in is like a blender chopping up intraday and swing traders. Will this "tomato" sauce thicken any further.

One component of the capstone in FX trading

" One common adage that is completely wrongheaded is: You can't go broke taking trading profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximise gains but rather maximise the chances of gain. The desire to maximise the number of winning trades ( or minimise the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important statistic and may even be inversely related to performance." William Eckhardt From my own observation in reality, this quote has an important impact on me. Being fortunate to be familiar with several Trend Traders in Forex who have made their mark in this venture, the above quote is given credence. It may seem to defy or challenge common sense or logic, but then again to be a success at trading FX does the same.

Success

Life Wisdom - Jim Rohn Success is both a journey and a destination.It's the steady, measured progress toward a goal and the achievement of a goal.Success is both an accomplishment and a wisdom that comes to those who understand the potential power of life.It's an awarenesss of value and the cultivation of worthwhile values through discipline.It's both material and spiritual, practical and mystical.Success is a process of turning away from something in order to turn toward something better - from lethargy to exercise, from candy to fruit, from spending to investing.Success is responding to an invitation to change, to grow, to develop, and to become - an invitation to move up to a better place in oder to gain a better vantage point.But most of all, success is making your life what you want it to be. Considering all the possibilities, considering all the examples of others whose lives you admire, what do you want from your life? That is the big question!Remember, success is not a set of standards from our culture but rather a collection of personal values clearly defined and ultimately achieved.

Food for Thought..

" assume that they are better than average at picking winners and assume that they are right 50% of the time. They run their losses until they have lost 50% of their capital and take their profits when they are up 10%. They have almost guaranteed themselves a loss of 20% over time!" he exclaimed. "Now assume we reverse these habits, cut out losses at 10% and run out profits until we have at least doubled our money. We don't need to be right more than 25% of the time to still generate a positive return of 17.5 over time. The important thing is that we have skewed the return distribution to the right by changing a bad habit."

Feb 8th 09

Looking ahead as to the potential impacts on hand. US...bank stimulus package now probably delayed till tuesday. Chinalco has agreed on a 6bn cash infusion into Rio Tinto and waiting to hear on Mitsui's buying of some of Rio's assets. ( 5bn) German political issues on officials' resignation. Japan's very slowing economy.

Money Flow

If its not economic stimulus expectations its corporate interest. What with Nissan's need for eur for their european partner, reckon excecuted after the London fix. So eurjpy looked good LOL. On going talks by Rio Tinto, first seeking fund infusion from Chinalco and now talk of Mitsui buying a stake in Rio. Well audjpy should look interesting going foward. While cries for the US Obama led stimulus package to be passed, would be interesting Monday afternoon US time what the treasury sec outline looks like. All in all even with the eur snap back, its still not cracked above a daily trendline . Ah them jpy crosses... keep them on radar

Ah The Swing...

I read with candid restraint the news and reports that market is risk adverse and then it becomes less risk adverse. This is tantamount to calling the bottom of the market or a turning point. However, one thing is apparent and that is repatriation. So when the news reports etc keeps this up... its status quo for me. But as the reports keeps getting tilted to the risk adverse side then its a flag that maybe the markets are overdone. Its going to be challenging for the short term trader as the swings would provide opportunities but more risk in taking stops out.

The Race To Zero

In was 10+ years ago when A bunch of LSE economists and I were discussing zero rate policies for the U.S. It was apparent then that the road for the U.S was headed that way. Today, the race is on. The economies that get there first has a higher probability of coming out sooner. Market will favor these economies. The slower to adapt will face "more" disfavor. Ceteris paribus... the global economies faces similar challenges and there's one that has been in this for a long time. Take a page off the book of Japan and one can see what had worked and what had not worked well in QE. The implementation of QE by japan may shed even greater light for the way out of this tunnel .

Jan 29th Oops Day

My earlier post prior to this....after locking in 80 pips I realise I still had 2 positions open. Hmm... getting sloopy already. Anyway closed out the 2 to get squared. Cos when I do silly things like this forgetting my positioning its a big no no. Ended with 220+ pips. So not too boring afterall LOL It was a 5 lot postion that was still running. But nevertheless still a slap on the hand for being sloopy.

Must change mental approach..

With the markets not really trending so directional moves are limited to 100+ pips with little follow through, I put on relative value hedged positions and sitting on +60 pips locked in. Must snap out of this mentality and just wait. It gets boring for me playing delta neutral positions. Think will build a postion on a particlar ccy and wait. OOpps got one more hedged position still lingering with positive float. Think will just lock that in to keep 80 pips. man! this is boring!!!

Jan 28th

Just went squared. Closed out eurgbp short at 0.9263 for +85pips Closed eur long initiated today at 1.3263. For a tiny 22 pips. Must be getting nervous or something. My sense was not to hold anything into the FOMC decision. Maybe my expectations of surprised volatility may come to fruition. Better follow my gut and keep some $.

Surprises in the markets..

Am expecting surprises that the market will challenge traders with these next 2 weeks. Whats obvious may just turn on a dime. Its obvious that there's some "fight" or tussle in the direction of most ccy pairs. Thats why there's a lack of convicted follow through. Which side will win over... thats left to be seen. Example : out of the blue the ifo number came in better. Where did that curve ball come from ? Is it believeable ??? It now appears nothing is believeable LOL One thing is for sure.. the swings in price will get a bit more volatile. How am I positioned... well am short eurgbp . Its the only comfortable trade I feel for myself. Would love to see how the "private groups", "elite groups" of traders quided by a mentor and method perform this year. Just a curiosity -)) Their calls are so "secret" that it is not shared LOL Well more hogwash for wannabes to gravitate to. Such is the nature of man. Its been a traders market and not so heavenly for position takers. Guess trend followers have to really prove themselves this year.

resetting my charts....

Last few days been getting the sense that "oversold" may be the order of the day. Today's action seems to somewhat add to that suspicion. basically what has been down could be exhausted and what has been up could also be exhausted. So re setting my charts to switch to the potential direction. The move in the eur and gbp is encouraging from that view. But the angle of ascent is steep and so am waiting to see price action on a retracement. The Yen is still strong and in a broad range . A passenger ccy relative to crosses. So will spend as little attention to $Jpy as possible. The $Cad retreat is most impressive ... straight play I find is not as attractive as the cadjpy cross. Am sitting back and waiting my time for set-ups in line with potential diretional change. If it is then it would be good plays in terms of pip potentials. But if not then downside target would be only fractionally as attractive. Either way lets see what the market will show these 2 weeks.

Fibonacci and Fundamentals 4

Fibonacci and Fundamentals 4

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TGIF Blues !!

When off to a slow start its always a telling sign of whats to come. Not a good day for me. Only locking in 95 pips nett . Feels like such a wasted day so far. Consolation is its Friday and Chinese new Year is coming upon us. Rein in the jets and take it easy . Getting the sense that the market in some sell off trend may be tapering off. Not going to pre-empt it but am watching for signs of consolidation and possible retracements of the down slide. Since GBP has been the leader of the bunge jump, its in extreme levels already and may see some steadiness coming in. Again we are in extreme conditions in the marketplace -))) Now its become more like the X-games LOL . So put on the helmet, knee pads, elbow pads and dont crash and burn.

Thursday 22nd Jan

Sold the retracements on $jpy and euro today. Got nice fills. Also bot the retracement of $cad . Decided to square positions with nett 500+ pips. So now I can enjoy watching american idol on the tube. Key.. patience to wait for mkt to come to you. euro sold at 1.3050. $cad bot at 1.2549 and $ jpy sold at 89.50.

Wed 21st Jan

What a day ! The $jpy really brought on some good volatility. Taking advantage of that I closed out all my positions and locked in 600+ nett pips even with the $jpy lost. ( In actuality I did not lose a single jpy point as I traded the position that made me a little pips even with comms -)) ) So for the week so far a little over 900pips nett gained. Today initiated some positions .. 3 so far and sitting quite nicely with nett 200+ pips floating. The $ cad yeaterday hit my target of 1.2750 first target before a retracement so entered on the retracement today. Still targeting higher. But one never knows wat price action it would be like at 1.2750 again. Sitting and waiting for now. Peace !!

The New Admin...

What a historically significant period for the U.S . Am looking foward to it with little reservation. My reason for this is because of the "Infrastructure Building Plan ". Am in favor of the approach, as I reckon in these times we live in, its time to build. It is time to be sowing seeds. Not focusing just on survival. Therefore, the strength of the USD would continue. Even past the May timeframe that cycle gurus are expecting. Think their cycle studies should be massively tweaked LOL. Altho their cycle low currently for the USD and its strength into May is already a truism. For the U.S its truly the beggining of a "new" season . Build!! Build!! Build!!

An epoch season

2009 may prove to be incredibly challenging globaly , however, it presents opportunities for the trader. I have decided to change my style a little to accomodate a more relaxing approach and more analysis. To add to the "naked" approach base on price action and price patterns , S/R becomes more important and momentum monitoring in these market conditions would be extremely helpful. So am looking at zones of support and resistance and the price action at these levels. Like in all things market, the trend or weak side of the market is paramount. The analysis on this will be off the daily timeframe while the main trading is focused on the H4 and H1. I find that after a "direction" is determined , projecting zones from the beggining of the move becomes extremely helpful in terms of targets and retracements. So these levels will be based on fib numbers . As the picture is painted the road signs could be determined and its a matter of following the probable directions given by the market. One important element going foward will be fundamental structure and news. I believe it will become even more critical to be abreast with these developments and analysing its impact. From this I see new relationships coming into prominance. For example, in the atmosphere of "risk", the gold/oil relationship, gold/yen, oil/yen relationships becomes interesting. Almost a mth has past in 2009 and Yen favor is so prominant. In the long run what does it do to Japan ? I reckon it would cripple the country. Gold above $800, on "safety" issues, I reckon would prove naive. Why? Because we are sinking deeper and deeper into a deflationary state. Wait as this will unfold. Think about it. Why would the food complex be in bearish mode and gold is at $800 ? People rather buy gold than a basic necessity like food ? Given a recession, the basic needs get met first as in all cycles . As time moves foward , I see this imbalance shift and I see a sharp reversal in the soft commodities . Truly an epoch season globally this cycle is going to be . Peace .